Dear Activists and Friends,
I hope you all are subscribed to this excellent news feed by Fred Burks. This is fascinating information. We still do not know the answers to the questions he raises about why Sweden, the Netherlands, and Japan have low death rates with no “lockdown.” And he raises deeper questions about what kind of world do we want to live in—and about fear—that we each must grapple with.
Wishing you all health and love,
Fran
Begin forwarded message:
From: "PEERS" <emaillist@peerservice.org>
Subject: Coronavirus: Good News and Vital Statistics Raise Profound Questions
Date: April 17, 2020 at 7:05:22 AM MDT
To: "Frances Shure" <franshure@estreet.com>
Join many informed, caring subscribers from around the world
Subscribe here to one of our two email lists
PEERS: Inspiration and Education for a Transformed World
This message is also available at this link.
We're US $4,500 in the red for the year.
Please make a donation to support this important work.
Bookmark and Share
Dear friends,
Coronavirus: Vital Statistics Raise Profound Questions
There is good news about the coronavirus. Social distancing and shelter in place policies have saved thousands of lives recently not only from the coronavirus, but also from the regular flu and car accidents as well.
Regarding the seasonal flu, because people are keeping social distance, the number of cases and deaths from the flu in recent months have decreased remarkably both in the U.S. and around the world.
The CDC states that in the U.S., there have been "between 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010," and further "between 291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year." This is equivalent to between 800 and 1,750 deaths per day. Yet those numbers have dropped significantly due to social distancing policies implemented around the world in recent months.
Thanks to the shelter in place policy, deaths from traffic accidents have also dropped impressively in this period. According to the U.S. National Safety Council, "In 2019, an estimated 38,800 people lost their lives to car crashes," while the WHO states that worldwide "approximately 1.35 million people die each year as a result of road traffic crashes." That's more than 3,600 deaths a day. Yet this Los Angeles Times article states that the recent 60% drop in traffic in California due to the shelter in place policy has resulted in a 50% drop in injuries and fatalities on the road. Project that number worldwide and the number of lives saved is likely in the tens of thousands or more.
Many thousands of lives have been saved in these last months thanks to decreased deaths from both the flu and vehicle accidents as a result of the shelter in place and social distancing policies being implemented around the globe.
This is great news, yet it also raises a serious question. When the coronavirus finally abates, what would happen if governments continued these two policies? If social distancing and shelter in place were implemented permanently, hundreds of thousands of lives could be saved worldwide every year from decreased deaths due to both the seasonal flu and car accidents.
Yet is this really how we want to live our lives?
How much are we willing to sacrifice in order to save one life? How about 100 lives, 10,000 or even a million lives? If driving were banned altogether, over a million lives would be saved every year. But clearly the cost would be too great, as our society could no longer function in anything like it's current state without driving. And we would lose the freedom of mobility. If shelter in place became permanent, hundreds of thousands of lives would be saved every year, yet again, society as we know it would be drastically different and great freedoms would be lost.
The vast majority of people will not likely be comfortable with making these two policies permanent, even if they would save millions of lives. The cost to humanity socially and spiritually would significantly outweigh the cost of those lives. Not to mention the many deaths that would result from these policies due to depression and domestic violence, and how many people's jobs and careers would be ruined or lost.
This raises an important and profound question in these most challenging times. When is it beneficial to implement these policies? How do we weigh the balance between the number of lives saved as a result of these policies and the number of deaths actually caused by the policies in addition to the suffering caused both socially and spiritually?
Even now, what are the costs of these policies being implemented worldwide? A New York Times article titled "Coronavirus Crisis Could Plunge Half a Billion People Into Poverty" states that according to an Oxfam report, "Estimates show that, regardless of the scenario, global poverty could increase for the first time since 1990. This could throw some countries back to poverty levels last seen some three decades ago." And the IMF is now predicting "the worst downturn since the great depression."
Increased poverty brings with it increased death rates. How many thousands of lives will be lost worldwide in the long term from the economic devastation caused by many millions losing their jobs and the huge increase in numbers of bankruptcies?
These factors are being weighed seriously by the few countries not implementing shelter in place and lockdown policies. This despite intense pressure from the major media and governments worldwide. Notable examples are Sweden, the Netherlands, and Japan.
The risk here is great. Not implementing a lockdown will most certainly result in more deaths. The question is: How many more deaths will there be? Is it worth it in the long run if 25% more people die from the virus, but the economy doesn't crash? What if there is a 50% or even a 100% increase in deaths. This certainly seems possible. But will these deaths be outweighed by the great economic losses, which could result in even more deaths in the long run?
Sweden's top epidemiologist believes lockdown will do more harm than good. This CNN article relates how "life goes on as usual" there, despite a relative high per capita rate of infection. Here's a quote from the article, dated April 10th:
Restaurants and bars are open in the Nordic country, playgrounds and schools too, and the government is relying on voluntary action to stem the spread of Covid-19. The Swedish government is confident its policy can work. Sweden's actions are about encouraging and recommending, not compulsion. Much of Sweden's focus has been to protect the elderly. Anyone aged 70 or older has been told to stay at home and limit their social contact as much as possible.
In my extensive research, I've been following the coronavirus mortality rates closely. The number of cases reported is not very reliable, since testing in the U.S. and elsewhere has been woefully inadequate. The numbers of hospitalizations and deaths are a much more accurate measure of how the disease is progressing.
As the number of hospitalizations is harder to find, I've been following the number of deaths very closely in a number of countries. I'm paying particular attention to Sweden, Japan, and the Netherlands, as Sweden and Japan have not instituted lockdowns, while the Netherlands is calling their policy an "intelligent lockdown" in which, according to this Forbes article, "only the most important sources that may spread the coronavirus are closed."
We would expect these three countries with their more lax policies to experience a greater increase in fatalities than most other countries. Yet strangely, this has not been the case. We'll use the state of California as a comparison first and then look at how these three fare in coronavirus mortality statistics compiled from 10 major countries.
On April 1st, Sweden had twice as many deaths as California with 368 compared to California's 184, despite having 1/3 the population. The country was hit hard in the first few weeks of the pandemic. Yet 15 days later on April 16th, California had risen almost five times (483%) times to 889, while Sweden had gone up by less than four times (362%) to 1,333. This is unusual considering that California has been in full lockdown since March 19th, yet Sweden has not. The numbers in the Netherlands were even better than Sweden, with a rise of only 283% in the same period.
You can verify these figures by going to this link of archived coronavirus statistics derived from the official Johns Hopkins count and clicking on the dates in question. The death rates do have a time lag. According to a study published on this CDC webpage, the virus has an average incubation period of 4.2 days, while "the time from symptom onset to death was estimated to be 16.1 days." So it's generally about three weeks from the time of infection to the time of death. Yet even so, you would expect the numbers in California to be increasing more slowly than Sweden.
Then there is Japan. According to this Washington Post article published on April 10th:
Tokyo’s coronavirus “state of emergency” is as surreal as they come. Though the streets are noticeably quieter than normal, subways and buses are still jammed with commuters. Stock trading goes on as normal. Many bars, restaurants and cafes are abuzz. So are barbershops, beauty salons and home improvement centers.
On March 24th, Japan and California had the same amount of deaths at 42, though Japan's population is four times that of California. Yet over three weeks later on April 16th, California's 889 deaths were five times as many as Japan's 178. Granted the two cultures are different and there is the time lag with deaths, yet how could it be that a country without lockdown is doing so much better than California? And it should be noted that, possibly because of international pressure, Japan on April 16th instituted a full lockdown.
For a much wider comparison, here's an informative graph showing deaths per million population from the coronavirus in 10 major countries. Note that Sweden and Netherlands have the fifth and sixth lowest number of deaths, while Japan is doing the best of all 10. Another revealing graph of total coronavirus deaths since the 50th death in the same 10 countries shows these three countries doing better than all of the others.
Without lockdown and social distancing, we would fully expect these three countries to have much higher death rates than those which implement these policies. They were willing to take the risk of more deaths, feeling that the social and emotional cost of these policies would be too great. And yet surprisingly, their death rates have been lower than most countries implementing these policies. It doesn't make sense, but there it is. It could be that their death rates will rise in coming weeks. Yet even so, why isn't this being talked about at all in the media? (Possible answer here) And what does this suggest about the effectiveness of the lockdowns?
With the economy crashing, many millions losing their jobs, and the rate of poverty and domestic violence rising all as a result of shelter in place and social distancing policies, how wise is it to lock things down so tightly when the few countries which aren't doing this are showing lower death rates than most of the rest? Not to mention the trillions of dollars being thrown around as a result of the crashing economy (due almost solely to the lockdown), the large majority of which is going into the pockets of the uber rich.
There are many important factors to consider here in addition to the numbers of people dying and being hospitalized by the virus. How much do we give up our freedoms in the name of safety and security? How will the fear of germs and the fear of being close to others play out once the pandemic fades? And then there are the countless small and medium-sized businesses that have gone or will go bankrupt, with a high likelihood that – as in previous recessions – many will eventually be bought out by the wealthy elite for pennies on the dollar.
Many thousands of lives have been saved, yet how many jobs and lives will be damaged and lost in the long run as a result of these policies that infringe on our civil liberties?
May calmer heads prevail as we face these huge challenges. And may we remember that we're all in this together, even when we may disagree sharply about how to go about doing this.
If this information raises questions about how and why all of this is happening, remember that fear is used by many groups, corporations, and even governments to gain greater control and reap immense profits. Explore an excellent two-page essay titled "Creating a New Paradigm," which shows how and why we are controlled through fear, and – more importantly – what we can do about it. By educating ourselves and spreading the word, we can rise above the fear and make a difference in our world. Thanks for caring.
With best wishes for a transformed world,
Fred Burks for PEERS and WantToKnow.info
Former White House interpreter and whistleblower
Note: The thought-provoking article at this link explores how the power elite are taking advantage of this shock to the system to forward their agendas of power and control. This penetrating essay explores the long-term implications for humanity of the coronavirus and the choices we have right now. A wealth of excellent information on the coronavirus is also available here and here.
Resilience Guide for Coronavirus Times
1) Check-in so you don't check-out – be mindful of when you feel afraid and overwhelmed and how that might affect your ability to balance your thinking with different perspectives.
2) Question what you read – don't fall for the old maxim "if it bleeds, it leads!"
3) Follow the money. Who is profiting both financially and politically from this pandemic?
4) Find the people in your life who can question WITH you what part of the narrative is being left out.
5) Practice self-care – any activity, hobby or way of eating that helps you remember your best self. We need to feel well in order to think well.
6) Physical distancing does not mean social distancing. Crisis brings out the humanity in us so that we are closer and more connected than ever. We are all in this together.
7) Recognize that crisis can be a powerful opportunity for learning and growth. And we always have a choice between fear and love. Let us acknowledge any fear that arises, yet then choose love.
Bookmark and Share
Finding Balance: WantToKnow.info Inspiration Center
WantToKnow.info believes it is important to balance disturbing cover-up information with inspirational writings which call us to be all that we can be and to work together for positive change. For an abundance of uplifting material, please visit our Inspiration Center.
What you can do:
Contact your media and political representatives to inform them of this vital information on the coronavirus. Urge them to study and bring publicity to this important topic. Invite them to read this article and explore the links included.
Explore our excellent Health Information Center filled with reliable resources and links to key revealing health videos, essays, news articles, and much more.
Explore inspiring ideas on how we can work together to create a new paradigm.
Learn more about major health cover-ups which put your health at risk and other ways to improve your health in this lesson from the free Insight Course.
Spread this news on the coronavirus to your friends and colleagues, and bookmark this article on key social networking websites using the "Share" icon on this page, so that we can fill the role at which the major media is sadly failing. Together, we can make a difference.
See our exceptional archive of revealing news articles.
Please support this important work: Donate here
Explore the mind and heart expanding websites managed by the nonprofit PEERS network:
www.peerservice.org - PEERS websites: Spreading inspiration, education, & empowerment
www.momentoflove.org - Every person in the world has a heart
www.personalgrowthcourses.net - Dynamic online courses powerfully expand your horizons
www.WantToKnow.info - Reliable, verifiable information on major cover-ups
www.weboflove.org - Strengthening the Web of Love that interconnects us all
Subscribe here to one of the two educational and inspiring PEERS email lists
1607 Francisco St.
Berkeley CA 94703
USA
